WG-SAM-2019

The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

Although focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are to provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

(i)    Quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources

(ii)    The implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

In 2017, the Scientific Committee developed a five-year work plan (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI/BG/40) and identified topics for WG-SAM in 2019 as: Development of ecosystem models for toothfish, Acoustic survey methods and design to facilitate feedback management of the krill fishery (joint with SG-ASAM and WG-EMM), Subarea 48.2 research synthesis and evaluation. These were in addition to several topics not addressed by WG-SAM-2018.

Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice.

a.    preliminary assessments (e.g. structually changed icefish or toothfish assessments or developing assessments from research plans in Subareas 48.6 or 58.4)

b.    assessment-related analyses (e.g. algorithms to standardise tagging data inputs to stock assessments or gear standardisation issues)

c.    response to the Independent Stock Assessment Review (four assessments involved).

In data-poor fisheries, the trend analysis method for setting catch limits based on analysis of time series of biomass estimates was further developed in 2018, however, the Working Group noted a number of issues that required further development (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, Annex 6, paragraphs 4.3 and 4.7; SC-CAMLR-XXXVII,  paragraph 3.95). Unaddressed issues in data-poor fisheries such as the development of stock assessments and the use of CCAMLR decision rules in areas with significant illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) harvest (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, paragraph 3.83), or the use of methods to determine effective tag releases or recaptures in the analysis of tagging data (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, paragraphs 3.184 and 3.188) will be considered under this agenda item if papers are submitted.

In 2018, the Scientific Committee recommended that the Data Management Group (DMG) be renamed to ‘Data Services Advisory Group’ (DSAG) to more closely reflect the scope of its tasks as per updated terms of references (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, Annex 10).

The Working Group will consider progress reported by the DSAG, as well as identify a WG-SAM contact person for DSAG issues (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, paragraph 3.42). In addition, the Working Group will provide feedback developing data services needs.

A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Area 48 and Subare 58.4 was developed in 2011 (Conservation Measure (CM) 21-02; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 2.4 to 2.6; CCAMLR-XXX, paragraph 12.33). There are currently two standing agenda items for WG-SAM to review these plans and plans for research conducted under CM 24-01 (SC-CAMLR-XXXI, paragraphs 2.5 and 2.6; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 15.3):

(i)     review of research plans from Members notifying to fish in exploratory fisheries in Area 48 and Subarea 58.4

(ii)    review of research proposals for closed areas, areas with zero catch limits and other areas not included in (i).

The Working Group will prioritise reviewing the experimental design of new proposals, followed by new proposals, and ongoing research plans or proposals.

The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration in updating the work plan. Specifically, we will use this opportunity to develop a streamlined process for research proposal submission for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We will also review and propose an updated five-year workplan for WG-SAM for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We encourage paper submissions on these topics.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to a specific task of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs or the Co-conveners using the web-based document management system. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.

Discussion will conclude by midday Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and evening for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday morning.