A population dynamics model for Adelie penguins is developed which takes account of the factors of lower adult survival rates in the year of first breeding, and the possibility that such breeding may be deferred one year if conditions are poor. A Bayesian approach for estimation of the model parameters is put forward; its estimation performance (including robustness to certain mis-specifications) is tested by simulation, and it is applied to preliminary data for penguin colonies in the South Shetlands for illustrative purposes. The results for this case would likely be improved by the provision of more comprehensive data. Extensions of the overall approach are suggested, but a prerequisite for their pursuit is discussions on the likely levels of measurement error in the observational data.
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