WG-SAM-18

The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

Although focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are:

To provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

1. Quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and
2. The implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

In 2017, the Scientific Committee developed a 5-year work plan (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI/BG/40) and identified topics for WG-SAM in 2018 of:

Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

Amendments to, and adoption of, the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice.

In addition, specific issues related to existing assessments will be considered if papers are submitted describing indicators of fishery performance and stock status that could be reported between assessments (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraph 3.22) or the effects of selectivity assumptions on cryptic biomass, including in relation to maturity proportions at age (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraph 3.52).

The Working Group will consider an update of the stock assessment methods review conducted in the week prior to WG-SAM-18 from the Convener of the meeting with the understanding that the report from the meeting would subsequently be available for review and comment by WG-FSA-18 and the Scientific Committee.

In data-poor fisheries, discussion at WG-FSA developed a new method for setting catch limits based on analysis of time trends in biomass estimates. The Scientific Committee requested further intersessional work to develop a better understanding of the expected performance of trend analysis rules in setting catch limits these fisheries (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, paragraph 3.78 and SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraph 4.37).

The Working Group will consider further development of diagnostic plots and information targeted especially at Champsocephalus gunnari assessments (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraph 3.14).

The Working Group will also consider additional work submitted to further understand characterisitics of different gear types and how these characterisitics may affect the interpretation, standardiation and use of data collected from the fishery (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7,  paragraph 4.20).

A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Area 48 and Subareas 58.4 was developed in 2011 (CM 21-02, SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 2.4 to 2.6; CAMLR-XXX, paragraph 12.33). There are currently two standing agenda items for WG-SAM to review these plans and plans for research conducted under CM 24-01 (SC-CAMLR-XXXI, paragraphs 2.5 and 2.6; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 15.3):

1. review of research plans from Members notifying to fish in exploratory fisheries in Ara 48 and Subareas 58.4.
2. review of research proposals for closed areas, areas with zero catch limits and other areas not included in (i).

Proposals to conduct research in subareas other than Subareas 48.6 or 58.4 (e.g. areas with zero catch limits, closed areas or Subareas 88.1 or 88.2), are proposed under CM 24-01 and reviewed by WG-SAM to evaluate if the proposed research design is appropriate to the objectives of the research, including reviewing the results from previous research proposals as they may influence design considerations.

Research plans and proposals should follow the generic advice developed in SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraphs 4.14 to 4.18 and the milestones in SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, Table 2.

The scientific Committee workplan also indicated that following progress made in Subarea 48.6 with a focus group on stock structure, that a focus topic of stock strcutre in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 to integrate data and further develop the stock hypothesis there would be useful (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI, Annex 7, paragraphs 4.135 and 4.137).

The report from the workshop on Dissostichus mawsoni population hypothesis (WS-DmPH) will be reviewed relative to the research proposals submitted for Subarea 48.

The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration in updating the work plan.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to the specific remit of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs or the Convener using the web-based document management system. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.

Discussion will conclude by mid-day Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and evening for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday morning.