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    Further progress on modelling the krill–predator dynamics of the Antarctic ecosystem

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    Номер документа:
    M. Mori (Japan) and D.S. Butterworth (South Africa)
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    This paper addresses work conducted on the Mori-Butterworth multi-species model of the Antarctic ecosystem subsequent to the Ulsan meeting of the IWC Scientific Committee. Points raised about the model during that meeting are addressed in turn. Results are quoted that suggest that krill is indeed unable to fully utilise the primary production available. The precision of parameters estimated when fitting the model to abundance and trend data is reported. The model is extended to include an “other predators” variable (reflecting squid, fish and seabirds) so that the crabeater seal variable does not have to act as a surrogate for these in addition to the seals themselves. This results in an improved fit of the model to available abundance estimates for crabeater seals. A list of topics for possible further work on the model is presented. The development of an improved set of abundance and trend estimates for the various krill predators is seen as a priority for improving the reliability of current models, and it is suggested that this should be a key focus of the proposed joint IWC-CCAMLR workshop on this topic.