WG-SAM-16

The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

Meeting papers submitted to WG-SAM, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are:

To provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

(i) quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and

(ii) the implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

Amendments to, and adoption of, the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

The agenda has been structured to target the highest priority areas of work for WG-SAM in 2016.

Methods for assessing stock status and yield have been agreed and are in use for Dissostichus spp., Champsocephalus gunnari and Euphausia superba for the main areas in which these species are fished. Proposals to modify these methods, or to consider alternative methods, will be reviewed under this item.

Reviews of progress towards integrated assessments of toothfish, icefish and krill will occur based on submissions.

At their 2015 meetings, WG-FSA and the Scientific Committee requested that WG-SAM review and provide advice on several new topics to WG-FSA and the Scientific Committee.

There were two issues considered by the Scientific Committee to have the highest priorities.

(i) developing methods to quantify the level of spatial overlap between tagged fish and subsequent fishing effort, and evaluate the potential bias introduced into stock assessments and tag-based biomass estimates when the distributions of tagged fish, fishing effort and the underlying stock distribution are spatially heterogeneous (see also WG-FSA-15, paragraph 4.117)

(ii) developing methods to estimate uncertainty in assessments and provide management advice that is consistent with the CCAMLR decision rules, for example, for tag-based assessments with low numbers of tag-recaptures or fish stocks that had experienced illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) catches prior to the time when the assessment time series starts and thus the B₀ estimated by an assessment may not represent an unfished B₀ (see also WG-FSA-15, paragraph 4.117).

A large number of stock assessment related issues were referred to WG-SAM in 2015 (see SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, Annex 7, paragraphs 4.25, 4.55, 4.104, 4.116, 4.117 (a list of topics from WG-FSA-15), 4.119, 5.16, 5.17, 5.54 and 8.9). In addition, the Scientific Committee referred issues to WG-SAM in SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, paragraphs 3.14, 3.94, 3.249, 3.272, 3.275, 7.5 and 7.11).

Several issues also remain outstanding from previous requests made by the Scientific Committee or its working groups (SC-CAMLR-XXXIII, paragraphs 3.28 and 3.69, SC-CAMLR-XXXIII, Annex 5, paragraphs 2.40 and 2.42; SC-CAMLR-XXXIII, Annex 7, paragraph 10.3; and SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, Annex 5, paragraphs 2.36 to 2.43).

Key among this list is the focus on determining the number of tags that should be considered as available for recapture for mark-recapture estimates of local biomass of toothfish (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, Annex 7, paragraph 5.16; CCAMLR-XXXIV, paragraph 2.232). Review of these items will occur based on the scope of papers provided on these topics.

A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for exploratory fisheries in Subareas 48.6 and 58.4 was developed in 2011 (SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 2.4 to 2.6; CAMLR-XXX, paragraph 12.33). There are currently two standing agenda items for WG-SAM to review these plans (SC-CAMLR-XXXI, paragraphs 2.5 and 2.6; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 15.3):

(i) review of research plans from Members notifying to fish in exploratory fisheries in Subareas 48.6 and 58.4

(ii) review of research proposals for closed areas, areas with zero catch limits and other areas not included in (ii).

As a focus topic, WG-SAM-16 will review the performance of research in Subarea 48.6 conducted to date to determine whether the research continues to meet the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research as laid out in SC-CAMLR-XXX, Annex 5, paragraphs 2.25 and 2.2 6 and using the milestones described in the Letter to participants where appropriate.

Scientific research carried out in 2015/16 will be reviewed and proposals for further research in these areas evaluated (i.e. current research proposals in Subareas 48.1, 88.1 and 88.2). WG-SAM will review new research proposals to determine whether they meet, or continue to meet, the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research according to the objectives and methods set out in the proposal.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business, but they should endeavour to submit papers specific to the remit of WG-SAM.

The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration and advice in structuring a future work plan (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV/14 and discussion table presented at SC-CAMLR-XXXIV).

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities apparent during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs and the Convener, who will then provide the appropriate changes to the Secretariat. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively using a video projector and support from the Secretariat.

Discussion will conclude by midday Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and evening for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday morning.