Domain 1, encompassing the Antarctic Peninsula and South of the Scotia Arc, represents one of the most ecologically significant regions of the Southern Oceans. Given its importance and the ongoing environmental changes it faces, a Marine Protected Area in Domain 1 (D1MPA) has been proposed. To assess the effectiveness of such conservation measures, impact evaluations are used to evaluate the extent to which changes can be attributed to the outcome of a specific measure rather than to confounding factors such as environmental stressors. This document describes a potential framework to evaluate the impacts of the proposed D1MPA by establishing the foundations for a robust Research and Monitoring Plan (RMP). This draft RMP takes advantage of current monitoring efforts and is able to reflect ecological outcomes aligned with the objectives of D1MPA. Following a framework based on impact evaluations controlling for confounding factors (i.e., a framework based on the counterfactual of the MPA not existing), this draft aims to: (1) identify existing long-term ecological monitoring sites and propose key areas for ongoing and future in-situmonitoring initiatives, (2) list relevant ecological metrics to assess the impacts of the proposed D1MPA, and (3) present a preliminary design of a rigorous impact evaluation employing sites with and without the influence of the MPA (spatial and temporal) and considering contextual variables to address temporal stochasticity.
This draft sets the scene to enable informed and productive discussions for the development of a comprehensive RMP that could be beneficial for the establishment of an MPA that has been a topic of debate within CCAMLR for many years. Finally, we are submitting it to the Scientific Committee to receive feedback on the suggested approach and to invite Members interested in contributing to the development of the RMP to participate in this process.