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    Assessment models for Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in SSRU 882E including data from the 2005/06 season

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    Número de documento:
    A. Dunn and S.M. Hanchet (New Zealand)
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    We provide an update of the Bayesian sex and age structured population stock assessment model for Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the SSRU 88.2E, using revised catch, CPUE, catch-at-age and tag-recapture data from New Zealand and all vessels. The updated reference case resulted in a slightly higher estimate of initial biomass than in 2005, though this was mostly due to a different assumption of the level of natural mortality (M=0.13 y-1), and the revised length-weight and growth relationships. There was little difference between model runs using the New Zealand tag-release and recapture data and the all vessel tag-release and recapture data (B0= 10 300 t and 9 530 t respectively).
    Model fits to the data were adequate, with the tag-release and recapture data providing the most information on stock size, but none of the data sets had much information about the maximum size of the stock. Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) diagnostics suggested no evidence of non-convergence. Reference case MCMC estimates of initial (equilibrium) spawning stock abundance (B0) were very uncertain, with the median estimated as 10 300 t (95% credible intervals 5 340–25 210 t), and current (B2006) biomass estimated as 91.4% B0 (95% C.I.s 83.4–96.5%).
    Estimated yields, using the CCAMLR decision rules, were estimated to be 352 t for the reference case and 366 t for the all vessels case, assuming a future fishing selectivity equal to the maturity ogive.