WG-SAM-17

The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

Although focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are:

To provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

1. quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources
2. the implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

In 2016 the Scientific Committee (SC-CAMLR-XXXV, paragraph 13.17) indicated priority working topics of:

1. biomass estimation, including estimation of uncertainty
2. the review of fishery research plans submitted in accordance with CM 21-02 and CM 24-01. 

Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

Amendments to, and adoption of, the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs, procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

Structural changes in stock assessments for toothfish, icefish and krill, and the development of methods to improve the performance of integrated assessements will be discussed as a priority topic as they directly affect upcoming stock assessments used to provide management advice in the current year.

The Scientific Committee referred discussion of the most appropriate analytical methods to be used to generate local biomass estimates with different levels of information available, as well as uncertainty in those estimates, to WG-SAM for recommendations (SC-CAMLR-XXXV, paragraph 13.17). Although these estimates are used in the review of research plans and research proposals, the methods used for generating the estimates themselves will be reviewed as a priority topic by the Working Group under this agenda item.

A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Subareas 48.6 and 58.4 was developed in 2011 (CM 21-02, SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 2.4 to 2.6; CAMLR-XXX, paragraph 12.33). There are currently two standing agenda items for WG-SAM to review these plans and plans for research conducted under CM 24-01 (SC-CAMLR-XXXI, paragraphs 2.5 and 2.6; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraph 15.3):

1. review of research plans from Members notifying to fish in exploratory fisheries in Subareas 48.6 and 58.4
2. review of research proposals for closed areas, areas with zero catch limits and other areas not included in (i).

Proposals to conduct research in subareas other than Subareas 48.6 or 58.4 (e.g. areas with zero catch limits, closed areas or Subareas 88.1 or 88.2), are proposed under CM 24-01 and reviewed by WG-SAM to evaluate if the proposed research design is appropriate to the objectives of the research, including reviewing the results from previous research proposals as they may influence design considerations.

The working group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration and advice in structuring a future work plan (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV/14, and discussion table presented at SC-CAMLR-XXXIV and in SC-CAMLR-XXXV, Table 1). The Working Group will develop an updated list for discussion by the Scientific Committee.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under Other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to the specific remit of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs or the Convener using the web-based document management system. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.

Discussion will conclude by mid-day Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and evening for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday morning.