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The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.
Although focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.
The terms of reference for WG-SAM are to provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:
(i) Quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources
(ii) The implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.
In 2017, the Scientific Committee developed a five-year work plan (SC-CAMLR-XXXVI/BG/40) and identified topics for WG-SAM in 2019 as: Development of ecosystem models for toothfish, Acoustic survey methods and design to facilitate feedback management of the krill fishery (joint with SG-ASAM and WG-EMM), Subarea 48.2 research synthesis and evaluation. These were in addition to several topics not addressed by WG-SAM-2018.
Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.
Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.
The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice.
a. preliminary assessments (e.g. structually changed icefish or toothfish assessments or developing assessments from research plans in Subareas 48.6 or 58.4)
b. assessment-related analyses (e.g. algorithms to standardise tagging data inputs to stock assessments or gear standardisation issues)
c. response to the Independent Stock Assessment Review (four assessments involved).
|A preliminary model-based approach for estimating natural mortality of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea Region
B. Moore, S. Mormede, S. Parker and A. Dunn
|Planned updates for the integrated stock assessment for the Heard Island and McDonald Islands Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery in Division 58.5.2
P. Ziegler and J. Dell
|Revised CASAL model for D. eleginoides with updated biological parameters at Division 58.4.4b
T. Okuda and F. Massiot-Granier
|An exploration of the biological data used in the CCAMLR Subarea 48.3 Patagonian toothfish stock assessments
E. MacLeod, K. Bradley, T. Earl, M. Söffker and C. Darby
In data-poor fisheries, the trend analysis method for setting catch limits based on analysis of time series of biomass estimates was further developed in 2018, however, the Working Group noted a number of issues that required further development (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, Annex 6, paragraphs 4.3 and 4.7; SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, paragraph 3.95). Unaddressed issues in data-poor fisheries such as the development of stock assessments and the use of CCAMLR decision rules in areas with significant illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) harvest (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, paragraph 3.83), or the use of methods to determine effective tag releases or recaptures in the analysis of tagging data (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, paragraphs 3.184 and 3.188) will be considered under this agenda item if papers are submitted.
|The factors causing impact on the toothfish catch estimation on board of fishing vessels
K. Demianenko, P. Zabroda, I. Slypko, L. Pshenichnov, A. Bazhan, O. Diripasko and D. Marichev
|Information about methods for finding lost longlines
P. Zabroda and L. Pshenichnov
|Updates to Fishery Reports – A prototype based on the ‘Exploratory fishery for Dissostichus mawsoni in Subarea 48.6’ Fishery Report
In 2018, the Scientific Committee recommended that the Data Management Group (DMG) be renamed to ‘Data Services Advisory Group’ (DSAG) to more closely reflect the scope of its tasks as per updated terms of references (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, Annex 10).
The Working Group will consider progress reported by the DSAG, as well as identify a WG-SAM contact person for DSAG issues (SC-CAMLR-XXXVII, paragraph 3.42). In addition, the Working Group will provide feedback developing data services needs.
A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Area 48 and Subare 58.4 was developed in 2011 (Conservation Measure (CM) 21-02; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 2.4 to 2.6; CCAMLR-XXX, paragraph 12.33). There are currently two standing agenda items for WG-SAM to review these plans and plans for research conducted under CM 24-01 (SC-CAMLR-XXXI, paragraphs 2.5 and 2.6; SC-CAMLR-XXX, paragraphs 15.3):
(i) review of research plans from Members notifying to fish in exploratory fisheries in Area 48 and Subarea 58.4
(ii) review of research proposals for closed areas, areas with zero catch limits and other areas not included in (i).
The Working Group will prioritise reviewing the experimental design of new proposals, followed by new proposals, and ongoing research plans or proposals.
|Fisheries research within the Ross Sea region Marine Protected Area
S. Parker and A. Dunn
|Statistical modelling of by-catch patterns: a preliminary case study using research fisheries in Subarea 48.6
K. Sawada and T. Okuda
|Exploration of CPUE standardisation variances in the Ross Sea (Subareas 88.1 and 88.2A South of 70°s) Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) exploratory longline fishery
D. Maschette, S. Wotherspoon and P. Ziegler
|Proposals on standardization of toothfish resource research
|A development of catch per unit effort (CPUE) trends that may be useful in stock assessment for Dissostichus mawsoni in Subarea 48.6
S. Somhlaba, K. Leach, M. Bergh, T. Okuda, T, IIchi, R. Sarralde and T. Namba
|WG-SAM-2019/13 Rev. 1
|Proposed continuation of a multi-Member longline survey on Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in Statistical Subarea 48.6 in 2019/20 by Japan, South Africa and Spain
Delegations of Japan, South Africa and Spain
|Analysis of the sea-ice concentration (SIC) in Subarea 48.6, research blocks 2, 3, 4 and 5 with sea-surface temperature (SST) and statistical models
T. Namba, R. Sarralde, H. Pehlke, K. Teschke, T. Brey, S. Hain, T. Ichii, T. Okuda, S. Somhlaba and J. Pompert
|Oceanographic study of the Subarea 48.6 with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly and vertical profile of sea temperature (PST)
T. Namba, R. Sarralde, T. Ichii, T. Okuda, S. Somhlaba and J. Pompert
|Updated biological parameters of Dissostichus mawsoni at Subarea 48.6
T. Okuda and R. Sarralde Vizuete
|Continuation of multi-Member research on the Dissostichus mawsoni exploratory fishery in East Antarctica (Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2) from 2018/19 to 2021/22
Delegations of Australia, France, Japan, Republic of Korea and Spain
|Research program on Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 from 2019/20 to 2021/22
Delegation of the Russian Federation
|Modelling egg and larval transport of Antarctic Toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the East Antarctic region: Plan
M. Mori, K. Mizobata, T. Okuda and T. Ichii
|Report on joint exploratory fishing in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 between the 2011/12 and 2018/19 fishing seasons
Delegation of Australia
|Update report on marine mammal interactions in Division 58.4.4
N. Gasco, P. Tixier, T. Okuda, C. Péron and F. Massiot-Granier
|Revised proposal for the ongoing research plan on Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Division 58.4.4b (2016/17–2020/21)
Delegations of Japan and France
|Integrated research proposal for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 88.3 by the Republic of Korea, New Zealand and Ukraine
Delegations of the Republic of Korea, New Zealand and Ukraine
|Progress report on the joint research for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 88.3 by the Republic of Korea and New Zealand in 2018/19
Delegations of the Republic of Korea and New Zealand
|Continuation of the research program on study of life cycle, species compositions, biology and resource potential of craboids (Anomura, Decapoda) in the Pacific Ocean Antarctic Area from 2019/20 to 2020/21 by Russian Federation
Delegation of the Russian Federation
|Report on implementation of research program for study of species composition, biology and resource potential of craboids (Anomura, Decapoda) in the Antarctic Pacific in 2019
Delegation of the Russian Federation
The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration in updating the work plan. Specifically, we will use this opportunity to develop a streamlined process for research proposal submission for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We will also review and propose an updated five-year workplan for WG-SAM for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We encourage paper submissions on these topics.
Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to a specific task of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.
|Chemical marking protocols for Antarctic starry skate age validation
M. Francis and S. Parker
|Patagonian toothfish tagging study plan in the southwest Atlantic (FAO Area 41)
C.H. Lam, K.J. Park, J. Lee and S.-G. Choi
|Proposal on establishment of a new fishery for craboids (Anomura, Decapoda) in the Subareas 88.2 and 88.3
Delegation of the Russian Federation
|On acceptable scattering of longlines geo-referencing in the toothfish fishery in the CAMLR Convention Area
WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.
As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs or the Co-conveners using the web-based document management system. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.
Discussion will conclude by midday Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and evening for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday morning.