Crash and learn? An evaluation of potential conservation threats to South Shetland Island Antarctic fur seals amidst precipitous population collapse

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) are an iconic marine mammal, an important component of Antarctic ecosystems, and a key indicator species for regional fisheries management. Recent studies have demonstrated A. gazella is composed of at least four distinct subpopulations, including one in the South Shetland Islands. These South Shetland Antarctic fur seals (SSAFS) are the highest-latitude subpopulation of otariids in the world. As such, this subpopulation faces a unique array of environmental and ecological challenges, it harbors a disproportionately large reservoir of genetic diversity for the species, and has experienced catastrophic population decline in the last 15 years. We review the array of potential threats to the successful recovery of SSAFS. If decision makers wish to promote resilience and support a robust population of this species with future recolonization potential, actions are needed to address threats ranging from uncertain to critical, including: debris entanglement, climate change, incidental mortality, and resource competition with the krill fishery. In particular, the risks associated with the spatial and temporal overlap between the pups of this vulnerable subpopulation and the krill fishery should be addressed carefully. There is an urgent need for updated analysis on the population viability of the SSAFS as well as their summer and winter foraging behavior.