Sea ice is the major constraint on human activities in the Southern Ocean. Depending on a vessel's ice class, human mobility may be restricted or even prevented altogether by sea-ice conditions. This may imply limited access to research or monitoring stations, preferred fishing grounds or attractive tourist sites. Here, we introduce a statistical model that evaluates the sea-ice cover with two measures: 1) accessibility (i.e. the probability that a given area is navigable by vessels at a given time) and 2) repeated accessibility (i.e. the probability that a given area is navigable by vessels at a given time and again at least once within a defined timespan). We use daily sea-ice concentration data from 2002 to 2020 to demonstrate this tool and its functioning regarding the spatiotemporal variability of sea-ice cover in the wider Weddell Sea region. These findings reflect known characteristics of sea-ice distribution and dynamics in the Weddell Sea, confirming the functionality of our simple tool for determining repeated accessibility of certain areas. Such a tool may facilitate the planning of research and monitoring activities in the Southern Ocean, as well as in Arctic seas.
Document Number:
WG-EMM-2022/P13
Submitted By:
Dr Katharina Teschke (Germany)
Approved By:
Professor Thomas Brey
Agenda Item(s)
Publication:
Ant. Sci., 34 (1) (2022): 97–104, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102021000523
Abstract