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    WG-SAM-14

    Full Name
    Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling
    Location:
    Punta Arenas, Chile
    Meeting Start Date/Time:
    Meeting End Date/Time:
    Submissions Due
    Monday, 16 June 2014 - 00:00 Australia/Hobart (Working Group Paper)

    WG-SAM was held at the Auditorium of INACH's Laboratory 'Embajador Jorge Berguño'

    Meeting Report:
    e-sc-xxxiii-a5.pdf (205.23 KB)

      Documents

      Document Number Title Agenda Item(s)
      WG-SAM-14/01
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 48.6 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      3
      WG-SAM-14/02
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.1 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      3
      WG-SAM-14/03
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.2 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      3
      WG-SAM-14/04
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.3a in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      3
      WG-SAM-14/05
      More Info
      Progress report on the Weddell Sea Research Program Stage II
      A.F. Petrov, I.I. Gordeev, S.V. Pianova and E.F. Uryupova (Russia)
      4
      WG-SAM-14/06
      More Info
      Research program on resource potential and life cycle of Dissostichus species from the Subarea 88.2 A in 2014–2017
      Delegation of the Russian Federation
      4
      WG-SAM-14/07
      More Info
      Plan of research program of the Russian Federation in Subarea 48.5 (Weddell Sea) in season 2014/2015
      Delegation of the Russian Federation
      4
      WG-SAM-14/08
      More Info
      Stock assessment and proposed TAC for Antarctic toothfish (TOA) in the Subarea 88.2 H in the season 2014–2015
      S.M. Goncharov and A.F. Petrov (Russia)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/09
      More Info
      Continuation in the 2014/15 season of the research plan initiated in 2012/13 for stocks of Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2
      Delegation of Spain
      3
      WG-SAM-14/10
      More Info
      Progress report on the research fishery for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 48.6 being jointly undertaken by Japan and South Africa: 2012/13 and 2013/14
      R. Leslie (South Africa), K. Taki, T. Ichii (Japan) and S. Somhlaba (South Africa)
      2
      WG-SAM-14/11
      More Info
      Revised South African work plan for 2014/15 for the joint Japan/South Africa research on Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 48.6
      Delegation of South Africa
      3
      WG-SAM-14/12 Rev. 1
      More Info
      Results of the Spanish exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 in the 2013/14 season
      R. Sarralde, L.J. López-Abellán and S. Barreiro (Spain)
      3
      WG-SAM-14/13
      More Info
      Format for reporting finfish research proposals of the Ukraine in Subarea 48.2 in 2015
      Delegation of Ukraine
      4
      WG-SAM-14/14
      More Info
      Research plan for toothfish in Division 58.4.4b by Shinsei maru No. 3 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      3
      WG-SAM-14/15
      More Info
      Revised assessment models for Patagonian toothfish in research block C of Division 58.4.4, Ob & Lena Banks for the years 1989/1990 to 2012/13
      K. Taki (Japan)
      3
      WG-SAM-14/16
      More Info
      The ICES Benchmark Protocol
      C. Darby (United Kingdom)
      2.2
      WG-SAM-14/17
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in 2014/15 in Division 58.4.3a
      Delegation of France
      3
      WG-SAM-14/18
      More Info
      Proposal for a research plan for the exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in 2014/15 in Division 58.4.4
      Delegation of France
      4
      WG-SAM-14/19
      More Info
      European Union – Measurement of capacity in CCAMLR exploratory fisheries in Subareas 88.1 and 88.2
      Delegation of the European Union
      5
      WG-SAM-14/20
      More Info
      Integrated models for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) using survey data from 1981–2014 in Subarea 48.1
      D. Kinzey, G.M. Watters and C.S. Reiss (USA)
      2.4
      WG-SAM-14/21
      More Info
      Research plan for the exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1, 58.4.2 and Subarea 48.6 in 2014/2015 (including CTD data in 88.1, 88.2)
      Delegation of the Republic of Korea
      3
      WG-SAM-14/22
      More Info
      Plan of research program of the Ukraine in Subarea 48.2 in 2015
      Delegation of Ukraine
      4
      WG-SAM-14/23 Rev. 1
      More Info
      Data and approach for the revised stock assessment for the Heard Island and the McDonald Islands Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery (Division 58.5.2)
      P. Ziegler and D. Welsford (Australia)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/24
      More Info
      Preliminary results of the third CCAMLR sponsored research survey to monitor abundance of subadult Antarctic toothfish in the southern Ross Sea, February 2014
      S. Mormede, S.J. Parker, S.M. Hanchet, A. Dunn (New Zealand) and S. Gregory (United Kingdom)
      4
      WG-SAM-14/25
      More Info
      Proposal to continue the time series of CCAMLR-sponsored research surveys to monitor abundance of subadult Antarctic toothfish in the southern Ross Sea in 2015
      S.M. Hanchet, S.J. Parker and S. Mormede (New Zealand)
      4
      WG-SAM-14/26
      More Info
      Stock structure of Antarctic toothfish in Statistical Area 88 and implications for assessment and management
      S.J. Parker, S.M. Hanchet and P.L. Horn (New Zealand)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/27
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      Analysis of seamount-specific catch and tagging data in the Amundsen Sea, SSRU 88.2H
      S.J. Parker (New Zealand)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/28
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      Towards the development of an assessment of stock abundance for Subarea 88.2 SSRUs 88.2C–G – a discussion paper
      S.M. Hanchet and S.J. Parker (New Zealand)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/29
      More Info
      Further investigations in the assessment of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in Subarea 88.2 SSRUs 88.2C–H for the years 2002–03 to 2012–13
      S. Mormede, A. Dunn and S.M. Hanchet (New Zealand)
      2.1, 2.2
      WG-SAM-14/30
      More Info
      Calculating effective releases and recaptures for stock assessments based on tag detection and tagging mortality indices
      S. Mormede (New Zealand)
      2.2
      WG-SAM-14/31
      More Info
      An updated spatially explicit population dynamics operating model for Antarctic toothfish in the habitable depths of the Ross Sea region
      S. Mormede, A. Dunn, S. Parker and S. Hanchet (New Zealand)
      2.2, 2.5
      WG-SAM-14/32
      More Info
      A proposed process for the management of model updates and software versions for stock assessment used within CCAMLR with the example of the CASAL software
      S. Mormede and A. Dunn (New Zealand)
      2.2, 2.5
      WG-SAM-14/33
      More Info
      Preliminary examination of otolith microchemistry to determine stock structure in Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) between SSRU 88.1C and 88.2H
      R. Tana, B.J. Hicks, C. Pilditch and S.M. Hanchet (New Zealand)
      2.1
      WG-SAM-14/34
      More Info
      Proposal for a longline survey of toothfish in the northern Ross Sea region (SSRUs 88.2 A and B)
      Delegations of New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom
      4
      WG-SAM-14/35
      More Info
      Nine years of tag-recapture in CCAMLR Statistical Subarea 48.3 – Part I: General data characterisation and analysis
      M. Soeffker, C. Darby and R.D. Scott (United Kingdom)
      2.1

      Agenda

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      1     Introduction

      The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

      Meeting papers submitted to WG-SAM, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

      The terms of reference for WG-SAM are:

      To provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

      (i) quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and
      (ii) the implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

      1.1     Opening of the meeting

      Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

      1.2     Adoption of the agenda and organisation of the meeting

      Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

      The agenda has been structured to account for the areas of work most likely to engage WG-SAM in 2014.

      2     Methods for assessing stocks in established fisheries

      Methods for assessing stock status and yield have been agreed and are in use for Dissostichus spp., Champsocephalus gunnari and Euphausia superba for the main areas in which these species are fished. Proposals to modify these methods, or to consider alternative methods, will be reviewed under this item.

      2.1     A review of progress towards updated integrated assessments of toothfish

      A review of progress towards updated integrated assessments of toothfish for the following subareas and divisions:

      (a)    D. eleginoides in Division 58.5.1 (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.101)
      (b)    D. eleginoides in Division 58.5.2 (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.112)
      (c)    D. eleginoides in Subarea 58.6 (Crozet) (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.123)
      (d)    D. eleginoides in Subareas 58.6/58.7 (Prince Edward/Marion Is), (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.130)
      (e)    D. mawsoni in Subarea 88.2 (SSRUs C–H) (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraphs 3.167 to 3.169).

      2.2     A review of stock assessment methodologies used in CCAMLR’s integrated toothfish assessments

      A review of stock assessment methodologies used in CCAMLR’s integrated toothfish assessments (WG-FSA-13, paragraphs 4.103 to 4.105; SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraphs 3.69 to 3.76) to include:

      (a)    data weighting and screening
      (b)    comparison of MCMC and covariance resampling methods
      (c)    alternative methods for estimating cryptic biomass
      (d)    development of a standard set of diagnostics
      (e)    version control in CASAL
      (f)     external review of assessments.

      2.3     A review of mechanisms by which CCAMLR decision rules are implemented

      A review of mechanisms by which CCAMLR decision rules are implemented to improve the Commission’s ability to meet the objectives of the Convention (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.108; CCAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 5.20)

      2.4     Developments in integrated stock assessment methodologies for krill
      2.5     Other work

      A number of other issues were raised in 2013 that could be covered under other work. However, these issues will be given lower priority at the 2014 meeting due to the heavy workload. This includes a review of potential stock linkages for toothfish stocks in Subareas 48.3 and 48.4; 88.1 and 88.2 and 88.3; 58.6 and 58.7; and Divisions 58.5.1 and 58.5.2 (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 4.100), comparison of biomass estimates derived from local depletion versus Petersen tag estimators (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 3.33), evaluation of alternative lower catch limit reference points for icefish (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 4.6), recalculation of seabed areas (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 6.11) and review and revision of the Fishery Reports (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.54).

      3     Evaluation of research plans from Members notifying to fish in new and exploratory fisheries in Subareas 48.6 and 58.4

      A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for new and exploratory fisheries in areas other than Subareas 88.1 and 88.2 was adopted by the Commission at its 2011 meeting (CCAMLR, 2011). WG-SAM will briefly review research carried out under these plans in 2013/14 and the proposal for research to be carried out for 2014/15 to determine whether they continue to meet the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research as laid out in SC-CAMLR-XXX, Annex 5, paragraphs 2.25 and 2.26 using the format provided in Table 6 of WG-SAM-2012 where appropriate. Because most of the research plans are year 1 or year 2 of a multi-year program, priority will be given to reviewing new proposals and to proposals where there is a large discrepancy between the observed and expected numbers of tag recoveries.

      WG-SAM-14/01 Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 48.6 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      WG-SAM-14/02 Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.1 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      WG-SAM-14/03 Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.2 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      WG-SAM-14/04 Research plan for the exploratory fisheries for Dissostichus spp. in Division 58.4.3a in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      WG-SAM-14/09 Continuation in the 2014/15 season of the research plan initiated in 2012/13 for stocks of Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2
      Delegation of Spain
      WG-SAM-14/11 Revised South African work plan for 2014/15 for the joint Japan/South Africa research on Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 48.6
      Delegation of South Africa
      WG-SAM-14/12 Rev. 1 Results of the Spanish exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 in the 2013/14 season
      R. Sarralde, L.J. López-Abellán and S. Barreiro (Spain)
      WG-SAM-14/14 Research plan for toothfish in Division 58.4.4b by Shinsei maru No. 3 in 2014/15
      Delegation of Japan
      WG-SAM-14/15 Revised assessment models for Patagonian toothfish in research block C of Division 58.4.4, Ob & Lena Banks for the years 1989/1990 to 2012/13
      K. Taki (Japan)
      WG-SAM-14/17 Research plan for the exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in 2014/15 in Division 58.4.3a
      Delegation of France
      WG-SAM-14/21 Research plan for the exploratory longline fishery for Dissostichus spp. in Divisions 58.4.1, 58.4.2 and Subarea 48.6 in 2014/2015 (including CTD data in 88.1, 88.2)
      Delegation of the Republic of Korea
      4     Review of scientific research proposals for other areas (e.g. closed areas, areas with zero catch limits, Subareas 88.1 and 88.2)

      Review of scientific research proposals on commercial fish stocks in closed areas, areas with zero catch limits, and Subareas 88.1 and 88.2 etc.

      Scientific research carried out in 2014/15 will be reviewed and proposals for further research on toothfish stocks in these areas evaluated. WG-SAM will review any new research proposals to determine whether they continue to meet the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research using the format provided in Table 6 of WG-SAM-2012 where appropriate.  Because most of the research plans are year 1 or year 2 of a multi-year program, priority will be given to reviewing new proposals and to proposals where there is a large discrepancy between the observed and expected numbers of tag recoveries.

      5     Other business
      6     Advice to the Scientific Committee
      6.1     WG-FSA
      6.2     General

      WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities apparent during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

      7     Adoption of report and close of meeting.

      As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs, who will then provide the appropriate changes to the Secretariat. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively using a video projector and support from the Secretariat.

      Discussion will conclude by midday Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and Friday morning for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday afternoon.

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