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    WG-SAM-2022

    Full Name
    Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling
    Location:
    Online
    Meeting Start Date/Time:
    Meeting End Date/Time:
    Submissions Due
    Monday, 13 June 2022 - 09:00 Australia/Hobart (Working Group Paper)

    The WG-SAM-2022 meeting will start on Monday 27 June 2022 at 04:00 UTC.

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    Meeting Report:

      Documents

      Document Number Title Sort descending Agenda Item(s)
      WG-SAM-2022/08
      More Info
      2022 provisional trend analysis – preliminary estimates of toothfish biomass in research blocks
      CCAMLR Secretariat
      3.3
      WG-SAM-2022/03
      More Info
      2022 updated analysis of the sea ice concentration in research blocks 4 and 5 of Subarea 48.6 with sea surface temperature and winds
      T. Namba, R. Sarralde, T. Ichii, T. Okuda, S. Somhlaba and J. Pompert
      6.1
      WG-SAM-2022/24
      More Info
      A comparison of estimates of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) maturity and growth in Subarea 48.3 using different otolith selection procedures
      J. Marsh, T. Earl, P. Hollyman and C. Darby
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/23
      More Info
      A comparison of fishing mortality estimates derived using data-rich and data-limited approaches
      C. Darby and T. Earl
      3.3
      WG-SAM-2022/10
      More Info
      A pilot study on the length-weight relationship of fresh Antarctic krill with weight-at-length based on multiple individuals
      G. Fan, Y. Ying, J. Zhu and X. Zhao
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/13
      More Info
      A review of the Ross Sea shelf survey
      J. Devine
      5
      WG-SAM-2022/11
      More Info
      A study of odour parameters for different bait types used in the toothfish fishing in CCAMLR area
      O.Y. Krasnoborodko
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/16
      More Info
      A tool for creating simulated survey outputs from longline data
      M. Kerr and T. Earl
      3.3
      WG-SAM-2022/28 Rev. 2
      More Info
      An alternative method of calculating precautionary yield
      D. Kinzey and G.M. Watters
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/P01
      More Info
      Casal2 User Manual for Age-Based Models
      Casal2 Development Team
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/02
      More Info
      Continuation of the research proposal on Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in Statistical Subarea 48.6 in 2022/23 from a multiyear plan (2021/22–2023/24): Research Plan under CM21-02, paragraph 6(iii)
      Delegations of Japan, South Africa and Spain
      6.1
      WG-SAM-2022/05
      More Info
      Continuing research plan for Dissostichus spp. under CM 24-01, paragraph 3, in Subarea 88.3 by Korea and Ukraine from 2021/22 to 2023/24
      Delegations of Korea and Ukraine
      6.3
      WG-SAM-2022/17
      More Info
      Estimates of tag loss rates for Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3 tagged between 2004 to 2020
      J. Marsh, T. Earl and C. Darby
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/14
      More Info
      Integrated toothfish stock assessments using Casal2
      A. Dunn, A. Grüss, J.A. Devine; C. Miller, P. Ziegler, D. Maschette, T. Earl, C. Darby and F. Massiot-Granier
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/27
      More Info
      Methodical aspects of measuring the selectivity of gears in krill fishery
      S. Sergeev and S. Kasatkina
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/04
      More Info
      New research plan for the Dissostichus mawsoni exploratory fishery in East Antarctica (Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2) from 2022/23 to 2025/26; Research plan under CM 21-02, paragraph 6(iii)
      Delegations of Australia, France, Japan, Republic of Korea and Spain
      5
      WG-EMM-2022/32
      More Info
      Preliminary results on the length-weight relationship of fresh Antarctic krill with weight-at-length based on multiple individuals
      Y. Ying, G. Fan, J. Zhu and X. Zhao
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/25
      More Info
      Progress report on the joint research for Dissostichus spp. in Subarea 88.3 by the Republic of Korea and Ukraine in 2022
      Delegations of the Republic of Korea and Ukraine
      6.3
      WG-SAM-2022/12
      More Info
      Proposal for complex acoustic and trawl surveys for the mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) estimates in the CCAMLR Statistical Subarea 48.3.
      S. Kasatkina
      6.1
      WG-SAM-2022/06 Rev. 1
      More Info
      Proposal to conduct a local acoustic-trawl survey of Champsocephalus gunnari in Statistical Subarea 48.2
      Delegation of Ukraine
      6.1
      WG-SAM-2022/01 Rev. 1
      More Info
      Proposal to continue the time series of research surveys to monitor abundance of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the southern Ross Sea, 2022/23–2024/25: Research Plan under CM 24-01
      Delegation of New Zealand
      5
      WG-EMM-2022/01
      More Info
      Recruitment variability along the Antarctic Peninsula: What's the best way forward
      C.S. Reiss and G.M. Watters
      3.1
      WG-EMM-2022/02
      More Info
      Recruitment variability in Antarctic krill in Subarea 48.1 expressed as ‘proportional recruitment’
      D. Kinzey, J.T. Hinke, C.S. Reiss and G.M. Watters
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/29
      More Info
      Report from a training workshop on Grym krill assessments
      D. Maschette and S. Wotherspoon
      3.1
      WG-ASAM-2022/01
      More Info
      Report of the Chair of the Scientific Committee on the CCAMLR Scientific Committee Symposium
      Chair of the Scientific Committee
      7
      WG-SAM-2022/07
      More Info
      Report on exploratory fishing in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2 between fishing seasons 2011/12 and 2021/22
      G. Phillips and P. Ziegler
      5
      WG-SAM-2022/09
      More Info
      Review of the Antarctic toothfish stock hypothesis in East Antarctica and the spatial design of research in Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2
      J. Cleeland, P. Ziegler, C. Miller, G. Phillips, P. Yates, T. Okuda, C. Péron, S. Chung and R. Sarralde
      5
      WG-ASAM-2022/15
      More Info
      Review of the Rules for Access and Use of CCAMLR Data
      Chair of the Data Services Advisory Group (DSAG)
      8
      WG-SAM-2022/20
      More Info
      Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3 – proposed model updates
      L. Readdy and T. Earl
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/22
      More Info
      Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3: assessment diagnostics
      L. Readdy and T. Earl
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/21
      More Info
      Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.4 – addressing the convergence issues encountered in the 2021 assessment
      L. Readdy, T. Earl and C. Darby
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/19
      More Info
      Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.4: assessment diagnostics
      L. Readdy, T. Earl and C. Darby
      3.2
      WG-SAM-2022/26
      More Info
      The status of Grym simulations developed in 2021
      Y. Ying, X. Wang, X. Zhao and Q. Xu
      3.1
      WG-SAM-2022/18
      More Info
      The utility of surface plots in the development of the CCAMLR Decision Rule, its interpretation, and the rationalisation of current management and fishery metrics
      C. Darby and T. Earl
      4
      WG-SAM-2022/15
      More Info
      Using VAST (vector autoregressive spatio–temporal) models to predict spatio–temporal changes in macrourid by-catch in the Ross Sea region Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) fishery: Methods and preliminary results
      A. Grüss, B.R. Moore, M.H. Pinkerton and J.A. Devine
      3.2

      Agenda

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      1     Introduction

      SC-CAMLR-39 describes a process by which the Scientific Committee could progress its intersessional work, including with formal online meetings, in the situation where the prevailing conditions described in paragraph 3.6 preclude an in-person meeting (CCAMLR-39, paragraphs 3.1 to 3.6). As circulated in SC-CIRC 22/37, the Scientific Committee decided that the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) in 2022 will be held online.
      WG-SAM have been established with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.
      Focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, and submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.
      The terms of reference for WG-SAM are to provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:
      (i) Quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and
      (ii) The implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

      2     Opening of the meeting
      2.1     Adoption of the agenda and organisation of the meeting

      Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items.

      3     Development and progress of stock assessments
      3.1     Stock assessments for krill

      Conservation Measure (CM) 51-07 was scheduled to be revised in 2021. Although the revised krill management strategy had been discussed and iteratively
      developed through the four working groups during 2021, SC-CAMLR-40 did not have enough time to consider them in plenary (SC-CAMLR-40, paragraph 3.26).
      The Scientific Committee recommended a rollover of CM 51-07 for one year to provide time to consolidate the revision of the krill management approach in
      Subarea 48.1, with additional time needed to provide advice on other subareas (SC-CAMLR-40, paragraph 3.28). The Working Group has to discuss stock
      assessments for krill to consider the revision of the krill management approach in Subarea 48.1.

      3.2     Stock assessment for established toothfish fisheries

      The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice for established toothfish fishery.
      The CCAMLR Scientific Committee Symposium developed priority research topics for the working groups and the Scientific Committee during next five years (2023 to 2027, WG-ASAM-2022/01, Table 2). In this table, the following two items related toothfish fishery have been indicated as planned works for 2022:
      (i) research to develop new assessments for fishery structure at Subarea 88.2, and
      (ii) develop Casal2.

      WG-SAM-2022/24 A comparison of estimates of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) maturity and growth in Subarea 48.3 using different otolith selection procedures
      J. Marsh, T. Earl, P. Hollyman and C. Darby
      WG-SAM-2022/11 A study of odour parameters for different bait types used in the toothfish fishing in CCAMLR area
      O.Y. Krasnoborodko
      WG-SAM-2022/P01 Casal2 User Manual for Age-Based Models
      Casal2 Development Team
      WG-SAM-2022/17 Estimates of tag loss rates for Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3 tagged between 2004 to 2020
      J. Marsh, T. Earl and C. Darby
      WG-SAM-2022/14 Integrated toothfish stock assessments using Casal2
      A. Dunn, A. Grüss, J.A. Devine; C. Miller, P. Ziegler, D. Maschette, T. Earl, C. Darby and F. Massiot-Granier
      WG-SAM-2022/20 Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3 – proposed model updates
      L. Readdy and T. Earl
      WG-SAM-2022/22 Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.3: assessment diagnostics
      L. Readdy and T. Earl
      WG-SAM-2022/21 Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.4 – addressing the convergence issues encountered in the 2021 assessment
      L. Readdy, T. Earl and C. Darby
      WG-SAM-2022/19 Stock assessment of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in Subarea 48.4: assessment diagnostics
      L. Readdy, T. Earl and C. Darby
      WG-SAM-2022/15 Using VAST (vector autoregressive spatio–temporal) models to predict spatio–temporal changes in macrourid by-catch in the Ross Sea region Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) fishery: Methods and preliminary results
      A. Grüss, B.R. Moore, M.H. Pinkerton and J.A. Devine
      3.3     Stock assessment for data-limited toothfish fisheries

      The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice for the data-limited toothfish fishery.

      4     Management strategy evaluations: consideration of alternative toothfish harvest control rules, including F based rules for stocks with integrated assessments

      WG-FSA-2019 discussed the robustness of the CCAMLR decision rule to potential climate change induced variation in toothfish productivity and highlighted that this sensitivity should be considered by the Scientific Committee and its working groups (WG-FSA-2019, paragraph 3.14). The Scientific Committee endorsed the recommendation of WG-FSA to task WG-SAM with investigating potential refinements of the CCAMLR decision rules to
      increase their robustness in specific circumstances, such as using target and limit exploitation rates, through management strategy evaluations (SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 3.67).

      6     Review of ongoing research plan results and proposals
      6.2     Research results and proposals from Subarea 58.4
      7     Future work and comments on draft strategic plan (2023-2027)

      The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration in updating the work plan. Specifically, we will use this opportunity to develop a streamlined process for research proposal submission for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We will also review a draft strategic plan for 2023-2027 (WG-ASAM-2022/01, Table 2) for WG-SAM for consideration by the
      Scientific Committee. We encourage paper submissions on these topics.

      8     Other business

      Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to a specific task of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.
      In 2019, the Scientific Committee agreed on six priority items for the consideration of WG-SAM-2020 (SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 13.4). Due to COVID-19, the WG-SAM e-group in 2020 and WG-SAM-2021 with online meeting platform could not discuss these priorities sufficiently. The Scientific Committee considered that these priorities remained relevant for the forthcoming intersessional period as indicated in SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 3.1 and SC-CIRC 20/130. Although almost of these items have been addressed in the WG-SAM-2020 e-group discussions (SC-CAMLR-39/BG/15) and WG-SAM-2021 (SC-CAMLR-40/05), the following two items remain to be discussed in WG-SAM:
      (a) methods for calibration between vessels for tagging survival and tag detection, and
      (b) development of coding for toolbox for research plan review.

      WG-ASAM-2022/15 Review of the Rules for Access and Use of CCAMLR Data
      Chair of the Data Services Advisory Group (DSAG)
      9     Advice to the Scientific Committee

      WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items.
      Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

      10     Adoption of report and close of meeting

      The report with be prepared by the Secretariat according to the proposed schedule and made available, revised and updated using the meeting website. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.
      Discussion will conclude by Wednesday, allowing Thursday for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday.

      Daily session times (Preliminary schedule)

      Session 1: 04:00–06:00 UTC
      Break: 06:00–06:30 UTC
      Session 2: 06:30–08:30 UTC

      Date Topic
      27 June
      (Monday)
      1. Introduction
      2. Opening of the meeting
      3. Development and progress of stock assessments
      3.1 Stock assessment for krill
      28 June
      (Tuesday)
      3.2 Stock assessment for established toothfish fisheries
      3.3 Stock assessment for data-limited toothfish fisheries: trend
      analysis revision
      4. Management strategy evaluations
      5. Review of new research proposals
      29 June
      (Wednesday)
      6. Review of ongoing results and proposals
      7. Future work and comments on strategic plan (2023–2027)
      8. Other business
      9. Advice to the Scientific Committee
      30 June
      (Thursday)
      Reviewing report (No meeting)
      1 July
      (Friday)
      Adoption of the report