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    WG-SAM-2022

    Full Name
    Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling
    Location:
    Online
    Meeting Start Date/Time:
    Meeting End Date/Time:
    Submissions Due
    Monday, 13 June 2022 - 09:00 Australia/Hobart (Working Group Paper)

    The WG-SAM-2022 meeting will start on Monday 27 June 2022 at 04:00 UTC.

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      Agenda

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      1     Introduction

      SC-CAMLR-39 describes a process by which the Scientific Committee could progress its intersessional work, including with formal online meetings, in the situation where the prevailing conditions described in paragraph 3.6 preclude an in-person meeting (CCAMLR-39, paragraphs 3.1 to 3.6). As circulated in SC-CIRC 22/37, the Scientific Committee decided that the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) in 2022 will be held online.
      WG-SAM have been established with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.
      Focus topics are prioritised by the Scientific Committee, and submitted meeting papers, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.
      The terms of reference for WG-SAM are to provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:
      (i) Quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and
      (ii) The implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

      2     Opening of the meeting
      2.1     Adoption of the agenda and organisation of the meeting

      Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items.

      3     Development and progress of stock assessments
      3.1     Stock assessments for krill

      Conservation Measure (CM) 51-07 was scheduled to be revised in 2021. Although the revised krill management strategy had been discussed and iteratively
      developed through the four working groups during 2021, SC-CAMLR-40 did not have enough time to consider them in plenary (SC-CAMLR-40, paragraph 3.26).
      The Scientific Committee recommended a rollover of CM 51-07 for one year to provide time to consolidate the revision of the krill management approach in
      Subarea 48.1, with additional time needed to provide advice on other subareas (SC-CAMLR-40, paragraph 3.28). The Working Group has to discuss stock
      assessments for krill to consider the revision of the krill management approach in Subarea 48.1.

      3.2     Stock assessment for established toothfish fisheries

      The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice for established toothfish fishery.
      The CCAMLR Scientific Committee Symposium developed priority research topics for the working groups and the Scientific Committee during next five years (2023 to 2027, WG-ASAM-2022/01, Table 2). In this table, the following two items related toothfish fishery have been indicated as planned works for 2022:
      (i) research to develop new assessments for fishery structure at Subarea 88.2, and
      (ii) develop Casal2.

      3.3     Stock assessment for data-limited toothfish fisheries

      The Working Group will review new and modified stock assessment models under development to provide management advice for the data-limited toothfish fishery.

      4     Management strategy evaluations: consideration of alternative toothfish harvest control rules, including F based rules for stocks with integrated assessments

      WG-FSA-2019 discussed the robustness of the CCAMLR decision rule to potential climate change induced variation in toothfish productivity and highlighted that this sensitivity should be considered by the Scientific Committee and its working groups (WG-FSA-2019, paragraph 3.14). The Scientific Committee endorsed the recommendation of WG-FSA to task WG-SAM with investigating potential refinements of the CCAMLR decision rules to
      increase their robustness in specific circumstances, such as using target and limit exploitation rates, through management strategy evaluations (SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 3.67).

      5     Review of new research proposals

      The Working Group will prioritise reviewing the experimental design of new proposals.

      6     Review of ongoing research plan results and proposals
      6.1     Research results and proposals from Area 48
      6.2     Research results and proposals from Subarea 58.4
      6.3     Research results and proposals from Area 88
      7     Future work and comments on draft strategic plan (2023-2027)

      The Working Group will identify a prioritised list of topics to provide to the Scientific Committee for consideration in updating the work plan. Specifically, we will use this opportunity to develop a streamlined process for research proposal submission for consideration by the Scientific Committee. We will also review a draft strategic plan for 2023-2027 (WG-ASAM-2022/01, Table 2) for WG-SAM for consideration by the
      Scientific Committee. We encourage paper submissions on these topics.

      8     Other business

      Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to a specific task of WG-SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.
      In 2019, the Scientific Committee agreed on six priority items for the consideration of WG-SAM-2020 (SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 13.4). Due to COVID-19, the WG-SAM e-group in 2020 and WG-SAM-2021 with online meeting platform could not discuss these priorities sufficiently. The Scientific Committee considered that these priorities remained relevant for the forthcoming intersessional period as indicated in SC-CAMLR-38, paragraph 3.1 and SC-CIRC 20/130. Although almost of these items have been addressed in the WG-SAM-2020 e-group discussions (SC-CAMLR-39/BG/15) and WG-SAM-2021 (SC-CAMLR-40/05), the following two items remain to be discussed in WG-SAM:
      (a) methods for calibration between vessels for tagging survival and tag detection, and
      (b) development of coding for toolbox for research plan review.

      9     Advice to the Scientific Committee

      WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items.
      Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities discussed during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

      10     Adoption of report and close of meeting

      The report with be prepared by the Secretariat according to the proposed schedule and made available, revised and updated using the meeting website. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively.
      Discussion will conclude by Wednesday, allowing Thursday for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday.

      Daily session times (Preliminary schedule)

      Session 1: 04:00–06:00 UTC
      Break: 06:00–06:30 UTC
      Session 2: 06:30–08:30 UTC

      Date Topic
      27 June
      (Monday)
      1. Introduction
      2. Opening of the meeting
      3. Development and progress of stock assessments
      3.1 Stock assessment for krill
      28 June
      (Tuesday)
      3.2 Stock assessment for established toothfish fisheries
      3.3 Stock assessment for data-limited toothfish fisheries: trend
      analysis revision
      4. Management strategy evaluations
      5. Review of new research proposals
      29 June
      (Wednesday)
      6. Review of ongoing results and proposals
      7. Future work and comments on strategic plan (2023–2027)
      8. Other business
      9. Advice to the Scientific Committee
      30 June
      (Thursday)
      Reviewing report (No meeting)
      1 July
      (Friday)
      Adoption of the report