WG-SAM-2026

The Working Group will complete introductions, review the terms of reference, The Scientific Committee Strategic Workplan, review assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, make any amendments necessary to the agenda and adopt the meeting agenda.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are to provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:
(i) Quantitative assessment methods (including stock assessment methods and management strategy methods), statistical procedures, and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources,
(ii) The implementation of and data requirements for such methods, procedures and approaches,
(iii) Review of research plans and proposals, and
(iv) Sampling design of research fishing and surveys.
The Strategic Workplan is available here: https://meetings.ccamlr.org/en/p/sc-strategic-workplan

The Working Group will prioritise review of new research proposals.

The Working Group will review new research plans submitted under CM 21-02.

The Working Group will review new research proposals submitted under CM 24-01.

The Working Group will consider the progress with the Stock Assessment workplan and progress on individual stock assessment methods related to providing updated advice in 2026.

The Working Group will consider method developments for individual stock assessment models being developed for advice in 2026.

WG-SAM welcomes work to further develop the stock assessments of fisheries, including the items in the general work plan outlined within SC-CAMLR-43, para 3.8, which include:
1. Investigations of sex-disaggregated assessment models.
2. Investigating alternative estimators of abundance based on tag-recapture data and comparing them with the Chapman estimator.
3. Continued ongoing work to account for spatial changes and other sources of bias in tag-recapture data, with incorporation into stock assessments.
4. Exploring alternative approaches to characterise variability and trends in future recruitment and apply these alternatives in stock projections.

The Working Group will also review submitted work to examine the effect of age uncertainty on the stock assessment (Task 10).

The Working Group will review submitted work which provides diagnostics related to both the stock assessments and independent of the stock assessment which can be used to support the recommendations of the Scientific Committee. These include work on: 
Develop a repository of code with examples of standardised diagnostics (Task 15).
Develop a repository for code to estimate biological parameters, including worked examples (Task 16). 
Develop code for stock assessment diagnostics and stock status (Task 17).

The Working Group will progress the Management Strategy Evaluation workplan, specifically SC-CAMLR-44, paragraphs 3.3-3.10, including: 
(i) MSE work focus on HCRs based on harvest rate such as those recommended by WG-SAM-2024 (paragraph 6.7). The Scientific Committee also noted that other HCRs may be suitable for a particular stock, including for example HCRs that define changes in catch limits relative to current catch limits 
(ii) the key uncertainties to be included in the MSE could be specific to each stock but should include plausible ranges of key uncertainties including potential changes due to climate change 
(iii) the potential performance indicators proposed by WG-SAM-2024 (paragraph 6.10), average annual variability (AAV) and the preliminary performance measures proposed in WG-FSA-2025/11 and WG-FSA-2025/41 should be further considered and developed over the intersessional period when developing MSEs 
(iv) a framework for the scientific and management response for when exceptional circumstances are triggered should be developed.

The Working Group will consider submitted work on priority tasks of: 
Evaluation of the CCAMLR decision rules for finfish and potential alternative harvest control rules for assessed fisheries using MSE (SAM Task 12). 
Development and testing of data-limited fishery decision rules (SAM Task 13).

The Working Group should review new and first year research plans in Areas 48, 58 and 88, including their results according to CCAMLR-38, paragraph 5.64 and Conservation Measures 21-02 and 24-01. New proposals are evaluated by WG-SAM and ongoing proposals are evaluated by WG-SAM only in their first year for both CM 24-01 and CM 21-02.

WG-SAM-2025 will review progress made by the CCAMLR Otolith Network and the estimation of sample size requirements per age class for an ageing reference set (Task 9).

A number of priority topics relating to biomass estimation for finfish remain outstanding. Work plan tasks include:
Evaluate tagging performance using different gear types (Task 3)
Metrics of vessel tagging performance (Task 4)
Evaluate bias in tagging data in abundance estimation (Task 7)
Vessel configuration factors affecting tagging mortality (Task 8)
Additionally, SC-CAMLR-43 (para 3.24) requested WG-SAM to revisit tag metrics, not only focusing on tag overlap metrics, but also on the tag release and recapture performance to assess and potentially improve the quality of data for use in stock assessments.

The WG will review work submitted on designing robust surveys for biomass estimation of finfish species.

The Working Group will consider any methodological aspects related to the development of the Krill Fishery Management Approach as detailed in the Scientific Committee Strategic Workplan. These include addressing workplan tasks:
Effective sampling size for length frequency distribution (Task 1).
Development of integrated stock assessment for krill (Task 2).
Effective sample size for fish by-catch monitoring in the krill fishery (Task 14).

The Working Group will review the Scientific Committee Strategic Workplan (SC-CAMLR-43, Annex 7) based on the discussion during the WG-SAM-2026.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business. Papers submitted under this agenda item need to link the content to a specific task of SAM, and identify the actions sought from the Working Group.

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarized in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items.

The report of the meeting will be adopted.