Predicting future fishable distribution of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), with implications for Marine Protected Areas in the Southern Ocean

In this paper, we examine the effect of projected climate change on adult Dissostichus mawsoni in the Southern Ocean. We use General Boosted Regressions that account for both surface and bottom environmental conditions to estimate distributions under current and projected conditions for the 21^st century under different emission scenarios. We then relate these predictions to the efforts of the CCAMLR marine protected area network in the Southern Ocean. Recent studies of other species in the Southern Ocean have indicated that established and proposed CCAMLR MPAs cover an increased portion of suitable habitat for these species in the future. In light of these results, we anticipate that suitable habitat for D. mawsoni will also increase within the CCAMLR MPA network, or at least be maintained. Our study illustrates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of D. mawsoni and provides valuable support for policymakers to implement precautionary management approaches in the Southern Ocean under climate change.